Modelling Corona Virus Infections Progression in South Africa

Corona virus remains a deadly disease. The long-term effect of COVID-19 on national mortalities and the economy is unknown. The first case of COVID-19 in South Africa was confirmed on 5 March 2020. Since then the number of infections from COVID-19 has continued to increase and it seems the national numbers of infections officially reported do not reflect the actual number of infections in the country. This poses a challenge for the effective management of COVID-19. To mitigate the effect of COVID-19, the South African Government like some other countries, announced a full national lock-down on 23 March 2020. This study provides an assessment of the plausibility of the official numbers of COVID-19 infections in South Africa; assessment of the effect of the full national lock-down on the progression of the virus; projections of fatalities due to COVID-19 in South Africa.


Author: E.O. Udjo 2020