Further Modelling Corona Virus Infections Progression in South Africa

There is still no cure for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). South Africa like many countries has adopted a monitoring strategy of COVID-19 that includes publications in media releases, statistical figures regarding COVID-19. Critical analysis of the official COVID-19 figures is important to inform policy and decision makers in the management of COVID-19 in the country. Emeritus Professor Udjo has undertaken further modelling of the data to examine the progression of COVID-19 infections and case fatality rates during lockdown levels 4, 3 and 2 in South Africa. A technical report on the study has now been produced and published in PDF format and can be downloaded for free from this website. The results suggest that, although there was an exponential increase in cumulative COVID-19 infections during lockdown level 3 in South Africa, this began to wane during lockdown level 2. It appeared however, that the official figures of cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases as well as the cumulative numbers of COVID-19 deaths may have understated the magnitude and severity of the virus during lockdown levels 4, 3 and 2 in the country. In the absence of massive testing for COVID-19 in South Africa, the inclusion of the number of daily screenings in the Media Releases on COVID-19, may assist in assessing the magnitude and progression of COVID-19 infections in the country.


Author: E.O. Udjo 2020