Various studies have identified the problems associated with teenage fertility. Utilising the 2016 South Africa Demographic and Health Survey and using life table method to deal with censoring and selectivity, I estimated the magnitudes of teenage fertility in South Africa. The results indicate that of the women who were 15-49 years old in 2016, about 31% had a first birth after attaining the age of
13 years. The results further imply that of the women who were 15-49 years old in 2016 who had their first birth between age 13 years and exact age 19 years, approximately 92% of their first births resulted from statutory rape. The provincial comparison indicated that first births among teenagers is highly prevalent across the nine provinces of South Africa. Punishment for statutory rape may be up to life imprisonment in South Africa, yet there is a high level of first births by teenagers due to statutory rape. This is probably partly due to failure by victims to report offenders for various reasons. A re-focus on some of the discourse about teenage fertility on the responsibilities of parents, guardians or relatives is necessary to mitigate the high level of teenage fertility. There is little the judiciary can do if offenders are not reported.

Author: Emeritus Professor Eric O Udjo (PhD, London) 2026

Net migration is one of the drivers of population growth in any country. Estimating net migration is problematic except in countries that have reliable population registers. In the context of South Africa, the problem is partly due to outdated data on immigration and emigration from the Department of Home Affairs. There is often reliance on census data for the estimation but apart from a few countries in Africa, censuses do not usually collect information on emigration. The 2022 South Africa’s census included some questions on migration but not on emigration. Although the questions did not differentiate between documented and undocumented migrants, it is possible, that some of the foreign-born persons living in South Africa at the time of the 2022 census may have answered that their country of birth is South Africa. It is essential to evaluate the plausibility of the migration information from the 2022 census. Examination of the pattern of migration from the data is also essential. Using the 2022 census 10% sample data, the evaluation showed that overall, the sex-age structure of foreign born at the time of the 2022 census is generally consistent with expected age selectivity in migration.

Also, the evaluation indicated that the percentage of foreign-born living in South Africa at the time of the 2022 census was only 3% of the total population of South Africa in 2022. Gauteng had the largest share (49%) of the total number of foreign-born living in South Africa at the time of the 2022 census, with the North West having the least share (1%). While Gauteng, the Western Cape and the North West had a net gain of life-time interprovincial migration among South African born living in South Africa at the time of the 2022 census, the other provinces had a net loss, with the Eastern Cape and Limpopo having the largest net loss. It is unlikely, that censuses in South Africa can provide the true absolute numbers of foreign-born living in South Africa at the time of census. However, demographic modelling can provide insights.

Author: Emeritus Professor Eric O Udjo (PhD, London) 2025

Adult mortality is a partial determinant of the growth and structure of a population. The indirect estimation of adult mortality levels is based on parental survival questions in censuses and surveys. But responses to the question may not be taken at face value because there are often errors in the responses. It is therefore necessary to evaluate the quality of the data arising from the responses before estimating indicators of adult mortality from the data. The parental survival questions were included in the 2022 South Africa’s census. This study provided an assessment of the quality of the responses to the parental survival questions and estimated adult mortality indicators from the responses based on Census 2022 10% sample. The results indicate that the attributed percentages of the unspecified to the parental survival questions were high nationally (about 14%) and provincially – highest in Gauteng and the Western Cape. These magnitudes of unspecified are out of sync with those from previous censuses as well as with those from the 2021 General Household Survey.

The trends in adult mortality based on the Census 2022 10% sample are inconsistent with the trends derived from the 2011 South Africa’s census nationally. However, the results suggest that life expectancy at age 15 years improved from 45.6 years in 2004 to about 48.5 years in 2015 among adult males. The corresponding improvement among adult females was from about 51.7 years in 2004 to about 55.5 years in 2015 nationally. These are plausible improvements. The results at provincial level suggest that over the years adult male mortality levels were highest in KwaZulu-Natal compared to the other provinces with the Western Cape having the lowest levels whereas adult female mortality levels were highest in the Free State compared to other provinces and lowest in the Western Cape.

The results have implications for different sectors. For example, pension funds administrators/operators may be under-paying monthly benefits to some pensioners that choose certain type of annuity in retirement in South Africa if the pension funds do not take into consideration improvements in life expectancies, variation in life expectancies by province and by sex.

There are several limitations in this study due to the unavailability of fertility data in the 10% sample provided by Statistics South Africa. A key limitation of the estimates provided in this study is, that they give only a partial view of mortality in the South African population from Census 2022 since children dead of children ever born were not included in the 10% sample.

Author: Emeritus Professor Eric O Udjo (PhD, London) 2025