Census data in different countries are published at least a year after the census hence, become quickly obsolete because policy makers and administrators need population information not for the year of the census but pertaining to the current year and for future dates. The latest census in South Africa was conducted in 2022. The official figures from the census are controversial due to fewer number of people enumerated relative to the 2011 census resulting in the largest undercount adjustment in the 2022 census compared to previous post-1994 censuses.
Using the cohort component method, and the 2011 census as the base population, this study provided projections of South Africa’s population nationally and by province for the period 2022-2036. The results suggest that it is improbable that South Africa’s population could have been up to 60 million in 2022 let alone 62.0 million – the official figure of the national population size in 2022 based on the 2022 census. The results suggest that South Africa is not as populous as official figures make it to be. The study estimated the number of new births in 2022 to be about 1.0 million and the number of deaths to be about 586,000 in the same year nationally. When the results of the study were applied to other studies such as the Human Sciences Research Council’s HIV survey and migration study, suggest that the number of HIV positive persons in 2022 was about 7.4 million nationally. Also, the number of foreign-born living in South Africa in 2022 inclusive of all population groups, documented and undocumented was probably in the region of 1.8 million and could not have been more than 2.9 million assuming some foreign-born persons reported South Africa as their country of birth.
The study further suggests that post the 1996 census, the absolute and relative size of the African/Black population has been progressively exaggerated by official figures relative to other population groups especially the White population. Gauteng province was projected to have an increasing share of the national population in absolute and relative terms throughout the projection period. Population size is one of the considerations in allocating resources to various sectors. If the national and provincial population sizes are exaggerated, all other things equal, could result in wasteful expenditure because resources are allocated to serve people in a sector where they are not “all” there. The reverse would be the case if the national and provincial population sizes are under stated – insufficient resources are allocated to serve a smaller than actual number of people in that sector.
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