Pass Rate Vs Completion Rate in Matric Result

Each year following the release of matric results, argument about “real matric pass” rate surfaces. I have refrained until now from getting involved in the argument. Pass rate and completion rate are two different things reflecting different issues/problems in society. Following the release of the matric results last year, there was the argument in some quarters that the way the Department of Education computed the pass rate was incorrect. I disagreed privately and concurred that that the way the Department of Education computed the pass rate was logically and technically correct which may be expressed algebraically as:

 OPr% =(NP/NEW) *100 

where OPr% is the overall percentage pass among learners in that year, NP is the number of learners who passed the matric examinations based on what was defined as the pass mark in that year, NEW is the number of learners that were registered for the matric examinations in that year. Learners who were not registered to write the matric examinations in a specified year should not be included in the denominator in computing the pass rate for that year. Completion or survival rate is a more complex computation because many factors could be responsible for attrition among the original size (in absolute terms) of the cohort that were registered in a particular year. Computing a completion or survival rate for a specific cohort registered in a particular year entails following the cohort through each year from the time they registered up to the time they wrote the examinations. Attrition in the cohort could be due to socioeconomic and demographic factors such as illness, inability to continue paying for education, pregnancy, emigration etc, thus requires a lot more data to compute than computing pass rate. One of the appropriate methods of computation is survival analysis using life table methods. If one has all the data pertaining to “loss to follow” among some of the original cohort, then one may employ multiple decrement life table approach. The focus here is not on pass mark but on computing pass rate and survival/completion rate.

Emeritus Professor Eric O Udjo (PhD, London)
Independent Consultant

Eric Udjo Consulting
www.ericudjoconsulting.co.za
Email: info@ericudjoconsulting.co.za
14 January 2026.