The International Union for the Scientific Study hosted an International Webinar on Covid-19 Pandemic and Sexual and Reproductive Health in Africa between August 31 and Sept 3, 2020 convened by convened by Professor Clifford Odimegwu (University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa). The webinar explored the potential and actual impact of Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns and restrictions on sexual and reproductive health needs in sub-Saharan Africa as well as defining a research agenda for a better understanding of the demographic and sexual and reproductive health impacts of the pandemic. Emeritus Professor Udjo presented in the Methodological, Demographic and Funding session. His paper – Modelling Coronavirus Infections Progression in South Africa – (1) Assessed the plausibility of the official numbers of COVID-19 infections in South Africa; (2) Assessed the effect of the full national lock-down on progression of COVID-19 infection; (3) projected fatality from COVID-19 in South Africa.

Author: E.O. Udjo 2020

There is still no cure for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). South Africa like many countries has adopted a monitoring strategy of COVID-19 that includes publications in media releases, statistical figures regarding COVID-19. Critical analysis of the official COVID-19 figures is important to inform policy and decision makers in the management of COVID-19 in the country. Emeritus Professor Udjo has undertaken further modelling of the data to examine the progression of COVID-19 infections and case fatality rates during lockdown levels 4, 3 and 2 in South Africa. A technical report on the study has now been produced and published in PDF format and can be downloaded for free from this website. The results suggest that, although there was an exponential increase in cumulative COVID-19 infections during lockdown level 3 in South Africa, this began to wane during lockdown level 2. It appeared however, that the official figures of cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases as well as the cumulative numbers of COVID-19 deaths may have understated the magnitude and severity of the virus during lockdown levels 4, 3 and 2 in the country. In the absence of massive testing for COVID-19 in South Africa, the inclusion of the number of daily screenings in the Media Releases on COVID-19, may assist in assessing the magnitude and progression of COVID-19 infections in the country.

Author: E.O. Udjo 2020

Corona virus remains a deadly disease. The long-term effect of COVID-19 on national mortalities and the economy is unknown. The first case of COVID-19 in South Africa was confirmed on 5 March 2020. Since then the number of infections from COVID-19 has continued to increase and it seems the national numbers of infections officially reported do not reflect the actual number of infections in the country. This poses a challenge for the effective management of COVID-19. To mitigate the effect of COVID-19, the South African Government like some other countries, announced a full national lock-down on 23 March 2020. This study provides an assessment of the plausibility of the official numbers of COVID-19 infections in South Africa; assessment of the effect of the full national lock-down on the progression of the virus; projections of fatalities due to COVID-19 in South Africa.

Author: E.O. Udjo 2020

The latest population and housing census of Lesotho was conducted on 10 – 24 Aprils 2016.  Apart from a few countries that undertake censuses every five years, Lesotho like most countries of the world carries out censuses every 10 years hence, there is need for population projections for effective planning and efficient allocation of scarce resources in the post-census period. In support of the Government of Lesotho, the United Nations Population Fund engaged the services of  Prof Eric O Udjo as a consultant to train and work together with the Bureau of Statistics staff to develop the projections for Lesotho.  The document titled “Population dynamics and population projections for Lesotho 2016-2036” was a power point presentation by Prof Udjo at a Population Projections Dissemination Meeting convened by the UNFPA in Maseru, Lesotho on 27 September 2019.

Author: E.O. Udjo 2019