The study provides an evaluation of and estimation of adult mortality from parental survival.

Author: E.O. Udjo 27 January 2026

The World Economic Forum has been producing the Global Competitiveness Index for several decades. The focus of this study was on the 2019 Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) report. The indicators in the 2019 GCI report were “organised into 12 ‘pillars’. These pillars are regarded as drivers or determinants of competitiveness, thus implies that each of the 12 pillars is statistically significantly associated with competitiveness. Focusing on pillar 6 that has education performance indicators, this study examined the relationship between national competitiveness scores and performance in some education indicators in African countries.

The data for this study consisted of the overall competitiveness scores for African countries contained in the 20129 GCI report as well as quantity and quality of education performance indicators obtained from UNESCO and the World Bank. Some issues were noted in the methodology of the 2019 GCI report. The results indicate that though the bi-variate analysis indicated that each of the education performance indicators was correlated with overall competitiveness scores in African countries in 2019, controlling for other education performance indicators, none of the education indicators was statistically significant. A major weakness in this study was the small sample size.

Author: Emeritus Professor Eric O Udjo (PhD, London) 2024

Age and sex are cross-cutting variables in an economy. The quality of the age-sex distributions in a census is a general pointer to the overall quality of the census data. It is therefore important to provide an assessment of the quality of the age-sex distributions from the 2022 South Africa’s census. This study undertook such assessment using primarily, the unweighted 10% sample of the 2022 census that is available in the public domain. The results indicate that overall sex ratio of 91.5 nationally from Census 2022 10% sample is low and odd. The single-year age distributions were reasonably smooth nationally but less smooth provincially. The age-sex distributions nationally were of better quality than observed in some other African countries censuses.

The shape of the five-year population pyramid from the Census 2022 10% sample is, however, inconsistent with the shape of the five-year population pyramid derived from the 2011 census and more importantly, inconsistent with the five-year population pyramid derived from the 2021 General Household Survey undertaken approximately one year before the 2022 census. As in other censuses elsewhere in Africa and other regions, there is evidence of digit preference and age shifting in the five-year age distributions in the 2022 census. The weights in the 2022 10% sample imposed a different age structure on the original age structure in the 10% sample.

Users of the Census 2022 10% sample data therefore need to be sensitive to these issues and especially the weights since age-sex distributions are linked to all aspects of the life cycle and impact planning in all sectors of the economy.

Author: Emeritus Professor Eric O Udjo (PhD, London) 2024

Mortality indicators are sometimes used for comparing the health status of different populations. A vital registration system is one of the sources of data for computing such measures. However, the trend in the officially published absolute numbers of deaths in South Africa post 2006 is odd and raises doubt about the integrity of the officially published figures. This study, therefore evaluated the integrity of the officially published numbers of deaths from South Africa’s vital registration system. The results suggest that at least about 135,659 deaths that were probably reported by the deceased’s relatives in 2017 were not included in the officially published figures at national level for the year 2017.

Author: Eric O. Udjo 2022

The International Union for the Scientific Study hosted an International Webinar on Covid-19 Pandemic and Sexual and Reproductive Health in Africa between August 31 and Sept 3, 2020 convened by convened by Professor Clifford Odimegwu (University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa). The webinar explored the potential and actual impact of Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns and restrictions on sexual and reproductive health needs in sub-Saharan Africa as well as defining a research agenda for a better understanding of the demographic and sexual and reproductive health impacts of the pandemic. Emeritus Professor Udjo presented in the Methodological, Demographic and Funding session. His paper – Modelling Coronavirus Infections Progression in South Africa – (1) Assessed the plausibility of the official numbers of COVID-19 infections in South Africa; (2) Assessed the effect of the full national lock-down on progression of COVID-19 infection; (3) projected fatality from COVID-19 in South Africa.

Author: E.O. Udjo 2020

There is still no cure for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). South Africa like many countries has adopted a monitoring strategy of COVID-19 that includes publications in media releases, statistical figures regarding COVID-19. Critical analysis of the official COVID-19 figures is important to inform policy and decision makers in the management of COVID-19 in the country. Emeritus Professor Udjo has undertaken further modelling of the data to examine the progression of COVID-19 infections and case fatality rates during lockdown levels 4, 3 and 2 in South Africa. A technical report on the study has now been produced and published in PDF format and can be downloaded for free from this website. The results suggest that, although there was an exponential increase in cumulative COVID-19 infections during lockdown level 3 in South Africa, this began to wane during lockdown level 2. It appeared however, that the official figures of cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases as well as the cumulative numbers of COVID-19 deaths may have understated the magnitude and severity of the virus during lockdown levels 4, 3 and 2 in the country. In the absence of massive testing for COVID-19 in South Africa, the inclusion of the number of daily screenings in the Media Releases on COVID-19, may assist in assessing the magnitude and progression of COVID-19 infections in the country.

Author: E.O. Udjo 2020

Corona virus remains a deadly disease. The long-term effect of COVID-19 on national mortalities and the economy is unknown. The first case of COVID-19 in South Africa was confirmed on 5 March 2020. Since then the number of infections from COVID-19 has continued to increase and it seems the national numbers of infections officially reported do not reflect the actual number of infections in the country. This poses a challenge for the effective management of COVID-19. To mitigate the effect of COVID-19, the South African Government like some other countries, announced a full national lock-down on 23 March 2020. This study provides an assessment of the plausibility of the official numbers of COVID-19 infections in South Africa; assessment of the effect of the full national lock-down on the progression of the virus; projections of fatalities due to COVID-19 in South Africa.

Author: E.O. Udjo 2020