According to the World Health Organisation, Coronavirus is a deadly among all age groups in the population particularly the elderly and those who have a pre-existing condition which includes high blood pressure, heart and lung problems, diabetes, obesity, or cancer at individual level. In this study, Emeritus Professor Eric O Udjo attempted to identify the factors associated with high probability of Coronavirus cumulative case fatality rate among countries in the absence of vaccination.

 

Author: E.O. Udjo 2021

The reported global figures of Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and fatalities most probably underestimate the magnitude of the pandemic, as coverage and efficiency in screening and testing for COVID-19 vary from country to country. Inappropriate interpretation of official COVID-19 figures could misinform decision makers in the private and public sectors and consequently undermine effective intervention and management of COVID-19. In a seminar organised by the Population Studies and Research Institute, University of Nairobi, Emeritus Professor Eric O Udjo using South African data, critically examined COVID-19 fatality official figures and secondly, drew attention on the implications of COVID-19 fatality on population dynamics in the absence of vaccination.

 

Author: E.O. Udjo 2021

The International Union for the Scientific Study hosted an International Webinar on Covid-19 Pandemic and Sexual and Reproductive Health in Africa between August 31 and Sept 3, 2020 convened by convened by Professor Clifford Odimegwu (University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa). The webinar explored the potential and actual impact of Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns and restrictions on sexual and reproductive health needs in sub-Saharan Africa as well as defining a research agenda for a better understanding of the demographic and sexual and reproductive health impacts of the pandemic. Emeritus Professor Udjo presented in the Methodological, Demographic and Funding session. His paper – Modelling Coronavirus Infections Progression in South Africa – (1) Assessed the plausibility of the official numbers of COVID-19 infections in South Africa; (2) Assessed the effect of the full national lock-down on progression of COVID-19 infection; (3) projected fatality from COVID-19 in South Africa.

 

Author: E.O. Udjo 2020

There is still no cure for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). South Africa like many countries has adopted a monitoring strategy of COVID-19 that includes publications in media releases, statistical figures regarding COVID-19. Critical analysis of the official COVID-19 figures is important to inform policy and decision makers in the management of COVID-19 in the country. Emeritus Professor Udjo has undertaken further modelling of the data to examine the progression of COVID-19 infections and case fatality rates during lockdown levels 4, 3 and 2 in South Africa. A technical report on the study has now been produced and published in PDF format and can be downloaded for free from this website. The results suggest that, although there was an exponential increase in cumulative COVID-19 infections during lockdown level 3 in South Africa, this began to wane during lockdown level 2. It appeared however, that the official figures of cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases as well as the cumulative numbers of COVID-19 deaths may have understated the magnitude and severity of the virus during lockdown levels 4, 3 and 2 in the country. In the absence of massive testing for COVID-19 in South Africa, the inclusion of the number of daily screenings in the Media Releases on COVID-19, may assist in assessing the magnitude and progression of COVID-19 infections in the country.

 

Author: E.O. Udjo 2020