Using the cohort component method, and the 2011 census as the base population, this study provided projections of South Africa’s population nationally and by province for the period 2022-2036. The results suggest that it is improbable that South Africa’s population could have been up to 60 million in 2022 let alone 62.0 million – the official figure of the national population size in 2022 based on the 2022 census. The results suggest that South Africa is not as populous as official figures make it to be. The study estimated the number of new births in 2022 to be about 1.0 million and the number of deaths to be about 586,000 in the same year nationally. When the results of the study were applied to other studies such as the Human Sciences Research Council’s HIV survey and migration study, suggest that the number of HIV positive persons in 2022 was about 7.4 million nationally. Also, the number of foreign-born living in South Africa in 2022 inclusive of all population groups, documented and undocumented was probably in the region of 1.8 million and could not have been more than 2.9 million assuming some foreign-born persons reported South Africa as their country of birth.

The study further suggests that post the 1996 census, the absolute and relative size of the African/Black population has been progressively exaggerated by official figures relative to other population groups especially the White population. Gauteng province was projected to have an increasing share of the national population in absolute and relative terms throughout the projection period. Population size is one of the considerations in allocating resources to various sectors. If the national and provincial population sizes are exaggerated, all other things equal, could result in wasteful expenditure because resources are allocated to serve people in a sector where they are not “all” there. The reverse would be the case if the national and provincial population sizes are under stated – insufficient resources are allocated to serve a smaller than actual number of people in that sector.

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The spreadsheet also provides population size of special age groups by province. Technical details of the projections are provided in a separate report. The figures provided are strictly projections and should be interpreted as indicative.

They should not be interpreted as population forecasts or population predictions as no one can accurately forecast future population size. It is the expectation of this author that the figures provided would aid planning and decision at all administrative levels (except at ward level) in the public and private sectors in the country.

Researchers needing population figures may also find the spread useful.

Indemnity

Although the author, using quality control measures to minimise errors in the projections, accuracy of the figures cannot be guaranteed. The use of these figures is therefore at users' risk. The purchase and use of the figures in this spreadsheet is acceptance of this indemnity by users.

The post South Africa’s Projected Population Size 2019-2020 Dis-aggregated by Province, Municipality, Age and Population Group, 2016 Municipal Boundaries. (EXCEL file) appeared first on Eric Udjo Consulting.